When a new console cycle approaches we always seem to have this weird overlap between current and next-gen hardware that hinders ‘true’ next generation games’ potential at the launch of new hardware. What I mean by that is; there are over 70 million Xbox 360 consoles in the world as well as just about the same amount of PlayStation 3’s that developers will need to make games for to be profitable.
When the PS4 and Xbox ‘Durango’ finally hit the market this fall we’ll see around 1 or maybe 2 million of each console sold in the holiday season. The math is simple really, will you make a game for, at total maximum, of only 1 to 2 million consoles or will you make a game that can be bought by 70 million gamers?
Of course the answer is the latter option unless a publisher wants to commit suicide.
When Ubisoft or Activision releases Assassin’s Creed IV, Watch Dogs or Call of Duty Ghosts, all of these games will be made available on the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 as well as PS4 and Durango. Because of this fact Ubi or Infinity Ward will be somewhat limited when it comes to creating Watch Dogs or Ghosts because the PS3 and 360 owners will need to be able to actually play those games. Ultimately this will cause the next generation hardware version of these games to be bottle-necked in some ways.
Sure, we could say ‘Oh, all they will need to do is turn down the texture resolution and shaders’ but that is simply ignorant. The way for instance Watch Dogs will work is by not only creating a dense and beautifully rendered world but also rely on smart AI systems, gameplay features and systems as well as its unique invasive multiplayer gameplay that simply takes more processing power and memory which a current gen system couldn’t perform as designed.
Developers are now faced with a choice, do we make two different games or do we make two alternate versions of Call of Duty, etc. The answer is most likely that we will see games that make compromises in design and feature set to accommodate the ‘old consoles’. This will in turn make the first set of next gen games less impressive than they truly could be. Examples of this in the prior generation are games like Gun or FIFA. The opposite was true for Call of Duty which actually made two different games at the 360 launch but this was more the exception to the rule.
Do I need to buy a PS4 or Xbox ‘Durango’ at launch then?
Well, this is an answer you have to really try to find yourself depending on your wallets. We will see many games that are very close to its next gen counterparts with some inferiority in the graphics and AI department but developers like Ubisoft and publishers like Activision will be selling their games for another 2 years or so on the PS3 and 360 platforms, before we see PlayStation 4 and Xbox Infinity only copies of new games on the GameStop and WalMart shelves.
What do you think the implications or a split console market will be? Are painting a bleak picture or will we truly be disappointed by the first set of next gen games?
